Conservative and Bloc Strategy?

I asked myself why the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois are so eager to bring down the government. Although outrage over the Adscam scandal is sufficient for Joe Blow on the street, politicians almost always have ulterior motives. Here's my best guess.

The Conservatives want an election now even though it means they will only get a minority (and even that's iffy) because they have a good understanding of what will happen to the Liberal party should they be defeated.

Having gone from a majority government to minority to opposition benches in two years under Paul Martin's leadership, its safe to say that he will be done. The party will become leaderless and in the throes of a real leadership race and policy review while their election coffers are dry. Effectively I figure this means that they could not even think about another election for at least a year if not more. Consequently, the minority Conservative government would be able to act as if they were a majority during that time (barring any truly stupid moves) and push some of their less controversial agendas forward. If they can show the public that a year or two of Conservative leadership does not cause Canada to spontaneously implode, they will be in a better position to go for a majority next time.

For the Bloc, its a matter of political opportunism. While they cannot increase by much the number of seats they have in Parliament, it is to their advantage to exploit the public anger stirred up by Adscam while the news and revelations are still fresh in the mind of the electorate. An election this year will also allow them to maintain their high seat count for the duration of another minority government.

In addition, the Adscam fiasco has created the perfect set of condition for separatists and another federal election in which the BLoc wins big reinforces their momentum. When the province goes to the polls for a provincial election the Parti Quebecois will win big and immediately move on staging yet another referendum on sovereignty, and this time with the combined facts of Adscam and a minority Conservative government (which would be exploited by the separatists to give the impression to Quebecers that Ontario and Alberta now control Canada federally) it should prove sufficient to create that magical 50% + 1 vote in favour.

The separatists could probably do it without another federal election but it would squander some of the political capital of the Gomery Inquiry. Better to strike now while the iron is hot and the Liberals are seriously floundering.

If anyone tries to take this scenario and blame the Conservatives for wanting to break up the country, I say "Shame on you!" The Grits and their cronies with their illegal activities fed fresh wood to the fires of separatism, not the Tories. If Quebec leaves Canada, the blame lies solely with the Liberals.

Further to that picture, let me add this prediction: if Quebec leaves, Canada is doomed. A Canada without Quebec has even more concentration of population and money (hence power) in Ontario. This will further fans flames of alienation in the west, specifically Alberta. The only solution is a government model that purposely disenfranchises Ontario voters to some degree in respect to other provinces. And I hope that does not occur.